is optimism ahead for job seekers. why this quarter could be the one to land a new gig. plus, traders unplugged. our traders debate whether we are in a recession or the economy is rebounding. and, how to use election year to make money! first business starts now. you're watching first business: financial news, analysis, and today's investment ideas. good morning. october 5th. i'm angela miles.

in today's first look: you know the drill - it's the first friday of the month, making it a jobs friday. economists and traders expect up to 120,000 jobs were added in september and the unemployment rate will remain around 8.1%. ahead of the news, stocks and commodities rallied after jobless claims and factory orders came in better than predicted. a zynga sell off! the struggling social media game company cut its full-year outlook. shares dropped below $3. reports say at&t will sell nokia's new lumia smartphone. the national hockey league has cancelled all regular season games through october 24 as players and the league fail to reach a contract agreements. and schwab & amertride are reportedly closing some offices in the e.u. john brady of rj o'brien joins us now. john, jobs are on tap this morning. > > expectations are for non- farm payrolls in the month of september to reach plus 100,000, while the unemployment

rate, which was 8.1% in august, should uptick to 8.2%. this is a very sensitive report, not just for the markets but for the general election, as there will be one more employment report after today ahead of the tuesday, november 6th, election. so, i think the most import number is probably the unemployment rate. that tends to get splashed across newspapers on saturday morning. should come in right around 8.2%. but, likewise within the non-farm payroll number, there's going to be a big difference this month between plus 100,000 and plus 90,000. the incumbent president, of course, would like to see a 6-digit figure rather than a 5-digit figure, so it is a very important number for politics moving forward. > > john, what a week for oil. oil had a big spurt yesterday. > > i think there was probably a little more short coming in oil today. the middle east continues to see kind of simmering tensions. not just the benghazi and cairo embassy matters regarding the united states, but also in those skirmishes between turkey and syria regarding the government in syria and the civil war that's taking place there.

likewise the rapid devaluation of the iranian currency being fueled by hyperinflation seeing significant middle eastern money using a flight to quality trade by purchasing gold. > > speaking of which, everybody is talking about gold this week. is there too much bull? is it time to become a contrarian? > > i don't think so. gold has some interesting winds at its back. for example, today the ecb and bank of england met and kept rate policy the same, so we continue to see global inflationary policies out of central banks. likewise there continues to be union strife and worker strife in south africa, which will contribute to the metal. and then of course, as i mentioned, tension in the middle east is seeing significant middle eastern financial concerns buy gold in a flight-to-safety trade. > > have a good friday on this jobs friday john. > > thank you. looking ahead, this year's fourth quarter may be the best for job seekers since just before the recession. in our cover story, a number of

employers big and small say they plan to take on more employees, despite uncertainty over the so-called fiscal cliff at the end of the year and the presidential election next month. companies of every size say they're about to hire more fulltime permanent staff than they did last year during the fourth quarter. 16% of companies with up to 50 employees 20% of those with up to 250 and 34% of companies with more than 500 employees "i think it's the most optimistic 4th quarter since 2007." careerbuilder says job postings on its website are up 30% from a year ago. the most opportunities - in healthcare, information technology and customer service. "when you do see big companies showing improvement and small companies too, that's all good news and means we're pointed in the right direction." grasz says it sets the stage for a strong 2013, even as congress prepares to grapple with the so-called "fiscal cliff" of expiring tax cuts and spending programs. "right now, it seems as though business doesn't think washington will be that crazy

as to let that the fiscal cliff happen. government will solve this and not force the u.s. into recession." as for the presidential campaigning, for all the talk about healthcare costs and tax cuts, only one in five employers surveyed told careerbuilder that the election's outcome would impact their hiring. the rest said it'd have no effect or weren't sure. but retailers plan to use the holidays as an audition for full-time applicants. john challenger says out of 700,000 holiday hires, 25% will see it lead to a full-time position. on the flip side of all this, layoffs are at their lowest levels in a decade. even cutbacks to government payrolls have slowed to 1/8 of what they were a year ago. also from the labor front this morning, navistar is considering closing some factories to get back on track. according to reports, the

financiallly troubled truck and engine maker is also cutting its white collar workforce by 800. meanwhile, google says job cuts in its motorola mobility unit may go beyond u.s. borders. google bought the motorola unit back in may to make cell phones and cable set boxes, and said back in august it would slash 4,000 jobs. the number of americans working from home has shot up 41% in the last ten years. right now, that totals nearly 13.5 million people according to the u.s. census bureau. a few reasons for this kind of "home work" include improved technology - namely the availability of high- speed internet and skype, which makes working from home while still wearing your fuzzy slippers possible. it's also become necessary as employers have cut back on costs such as office expenses. the world money show is happening in chicago this week. while at the show, we discovered investors are a bit more optimistic about the fiscal quarters ahead. money

managers say it's a tough road and the election has skewed the outlook on the economy. andrew waldock, the son of one of the founders of lind-waldock, says the best option is to wait it out and see where the market is post-election. "there will always be good stocks, so the market could go higher. but the economy as a whole has declined, so most investors are bearish. i think the economy, as a whole, faces serious headwinds." waldock says small businesses will be the cornerstone for future economic growth in the u.s. a bond-buying plan in europe is turning out to be better than an asprin to alleviate tension. the stocks - especially emerging market stocks -

rallied yesterday after ecb president mario draghi said the central bank is ready to buy sovereign debt once conditions are in place. buying bonds would ease borrowing costs for debt- ridden countries such as spain. one of the conditions for spain and others to get help is to first get assistance from other eurozone governments. 92 people have been arrested in a mass case of medicare fraud. fbi raids in 9 cities led to the arrest of doctors, nurses and other healthcare professionals. the crimes scammed an estimated $432 million from medicare. a majority of the fraud took place in miami. other cities hit include chicago, detroit, baton rouge, l.a., new york, tampa, dallas, and houston. those arrested are being accused of false billing. "these alleged actions represent an alarming, and unacceptable, nationwide trend of individuals attempting to exploit federal healthcare programs and, collectively, to steal billions in taxpayer dollars for personal gain." that was attorney general eric holder. holder calls the fraud case one of the largest medicare fraud schemes ever.

american airlines is addressing its flight problems. the airline said yesterday that it has inspected 48 boeing 757s in its fleet and is fixing loose seats on some of them. all of the planes are back in service. this week, rows of seats became loose on 3 flights and resulted in 2 emergency landings. during the next few weeks, federal regulators will work with the airline and parts manufacturers to review repairs. retailers turned in a mixed bag of results for september. target, macy's, costco and khol's all had sales gains but fell shy of what analysts expected. limited brands continued its winning streak with stronger-than-anticipated same-store sales. retail analysts report that consumers shopped early for back-to- school items to take advantage of the aggressive promotions. mcdonald's could be looking to brand its own brew. the wall street journal reports that mcdonald's has filed a trademark to bag and sell its coffee for at-home brewing. the

journal also reports that mcdonald's may soon start looking to sell its coffee brand in grocery stores. the at-home coffee market generates around $10 billion in the u.s. each year. we all know people who have said "i'll leave the country if that guy gets elected!" well, jet blue has a ticket for you. the airline is giving away 1,006 round-trip flights to customers who come out on the losing end of the election. jet blue is taking votes as entries on its website. naturally, hotels & taxes are not included in the contest. still to come, traders discuss how the election will affect your investments. that's later in traders unplugged. but first, the surpising truth behind what america's workforce really wants. bill moller has that next.

o' rom

their employer this'll startle you. a good boss, good pay and benefits? nope. none of that. the country's largest employee survey company, workplace dynamics, spent 5 years doing millions of interviews and exhaustive research on this very question. doug claffey is ceo of workplace dynamics. for a business to succeed and survive and for employees to be happy and enriched, what does the workplace need? > > it's got to be organizationally healthy.

> > define that. it sounds like it's just a place where employees are inspired and motivated. > > it's really about a place where employees feel connected to the business. where they're executing well, which is about communication, about getting things done. but it's also about heading all in the same direction with great values and ethics, and all heading for the same place. > > i'm surprised. pay? benefits? that has to factor into it in some way. > > it certainly factors in, but we were surprised, it actually is just table stakes. it's just the basics. it really is about direction, execution, and connection that makes the big difference. > > what companies are doing this, that have organizationally healthy workplaces? > > companies like cargill and container store and google, three very different and diverse companies that all have very healthy organizations. > > what is healthy about them? > > it's really about the way their employes feel that they're part of something that's important, and they all pull together for a common objective. > > all right, so, how does a small business - how does a large business - adopt some of these things to change their culture, to change their workplaces, so that they are

healthier? > > there's four steps really. the first one is, you've got to measure. you've got to find out where you stand. you need to do that by doing an employee survey focused on organizational health. the second thing is you need to identify what your strengths and weaknesses are based on that survey. usually it starts with senior leadership. the third step is for senior leadership to take accountability for the organizational health and to really make that a high priority in the business. then lastly, you need to bake that into the operation of the business going forward. it can't be just a one-off wonder. > > you're actually changing the culture of a business, and that takes some doing. > > it takes some time and it takes some doing. and it's not necessarily the skills that managers are trained for in mba schools and in business. > > did you test this in any way? > > we did. we ran this across 5000 organizations across the united states, and then we tested it in the public markets by looking at public companies

to see if they would outperform the market, and we found out that the healthiest companies outperformed the stock market by 48% over the last four years. > > amazing. doug claffey from workplace dynamics. to your health. > > thanks very much. still ahead, two traders tell us what the presidential elections really mean for the markets. that's coming up.

time to add a little octane to the show with traders unplugged. pro traders alan knuckman and jared levy are fueled up and good to go a few rounds on some

hefty topics. good morning guys. > > morning angie. > > round 1: debating investments. what effect do the presidential debates have on the market and your investing? none, some, or a huge influence? > > i think it's middle-of-the- road. i will say there was a definite impact. i was watching intrade, which basically gave the probability of who was going to win as romney was building strength in the other night's debate. i saw s&p futures, spx, moving higher about six points, so there's a definite correlation. > > we talked about intrade last week and how obama was overbought and it was time to buy romney, so i'm using this as a point to sell romney, make some profits. but, you're going to credit this jump because of the debate. that's ridiculous. what about the first 6000 points that got the s&p up to four-year highs? that didn't have anything to do with it? > > i'm not going to take that away from obama- hold on a second. the point is, i think obama was completely factored

in. i think romney didn't even have a chance of winning up until last night, and i think the market realized- > > yes it did bounce back. > > round 2: the gas stunt? there's a political ploy right now of selling gas at $1.84, around the price when the president took office. of course, americans for property is backing this. they're pitching in a couple of dollars so americans can get cheaper gas. do we want gas to go back to those levels? > > absolutely positively not. anybody that thinks they want to go back to where we were is silly if not idiotic. gas was at that price because crude oil was at $33 because the world was coming unglued. so, at the time, sugar was half price from where it is now. coffee was half the price. a lot of these things were very inexpensive. i don't want to go back to those depression-border days. > > it's a tough call, right? as much as i want fuel to be 79¢, it's probably not realistic. remember, there are people that are dependent upon fuel being at a certain price to make money. > > do you want the dow to go back to 6000? i don't think so. > > right. there was a bounce. there was a bounce. exxon mobile, those companies, listen, those guys need to make some money. i want to be able to- > > higher oil prices are showing an ability to pay

worldwide in a strong global economy. that's the effect. > >round 3: do we have a recession already? > > is the glass half full or half empty? depends on how you want to look at it. i say absolutely not. the stock market is the indicator of the health of the financial markets, and we're at four-year highs. > > from a dictionary standpoint, we're at recession: two straight months of gdp decline. we haven't seen that- > > i studyied that in college. > > the market's forward- looking right now. the market's also saying that next year we're going to have 12% s&p growth in earnings. i don't think that's going to happen. so i think the market is looking ahead. i think we are headed more in the direction of recession than growth. but again, the data right now suggests that we're sort of stagnant more than anything. my problem is, i don't believe the growth or stock market prices are going to continue. and that's the problem. > > so you're bearish here? are you selling here then? > > up until the election i'm a buyer. after the election, depending upon who gets elected, then i'll be perhaps a seller. > > that is a hedge for you. i would suggest if you have

profits protect them. like he's hedging his bets without an opinion. > > time now for the bonus round. this is a great question for you: how much money do you have to earn to be in the top 1%? > > to be in the top 1%, $250,000. > > is it $250,000? i thought it was higher than that. > > $327,000. > > $420,000. > > $822,000. good to have you on the show this morning. take care. stay with us. how to make money on the election is next.

trader tim biggam of tradingblock joins us now in chart talk. he says yesterday we saw a romney rally. is that true? > > absolutely. the stocks that kind of were the romney-type stocks, the defense stocks, some of the insurance stocks, were big market outperformers, where as some of the obama stocks, healthcare and so forth, were some of the comparative losers. so we definitely saw not only a market rally yesterday post the debate the day before, but we also saw it mostly in the mitt romney-type stocks.

> > not to mention though we did have some decent economic data that also came into the market. but going back to the romney/obama matchup, the election is still a ways away. so could this be a buying opportunity for people who still think that healthcare reform will become a reality? > > absolutely. for those who are looking for a little pullback, and again, yesterday's move was not that great in the context of everything, but, we'll wait and see how big this will be if the romney stocks continue outperforming the obama stocks in the next week or so. so on any further dip, if you're a believer that the democrats will still hold the presidency, i think this may be the opportunity for people to jump

into those names, and maybe if you're long some of the defense stocks and insurance stocks, use the rallies to maybe trim out of those if you are a little hesitant. or, if the next debate reverses and heads obama's way, then this thing is certainly not a done deal on either side. > > bottom line: you're making money as this is going up and down here. > > absolutely. as traders, we like this volatility kind of in a range-bound environment, so this could be an interesting back-and-forth action until the election. > > have a great day. that's tim biggam of tradingblock. > > thank you angie. thanks for watching today. coming up next week: you don't hear this very often, but a number of investment managers believe the economy is getting better. wait till you hear why they are very bullish on the economy and the stock market. and maybe you should be too? from all of us at first business, enjoy your weekend!

we're live in san francisco where the entire police force will be out on the streets this weekend. we'll tell you why extra officers are needed for events planned. the steps bay area transit agencies are taking to make it easier for people to get around during this very busy weekend. a and coup l rob -- and a couple robbed at a bart station overnight. how the two suspects ended up in the hospital.

good morning. thank you for joining us on this friday morning, october 5th i'm pam cook. let's find out if it will cool down some more. steve paulson has the forecast. >> we've gone from one extreme to another. there is not only low clouds but high mid level clouds. you can see those sweeping up the eastern edge of this low. temperatures came down yesterday. they will settle in here. now 60s and 70s. here is sal. steve, good morning. traffic looks pretty well around the bay area. this is a look at highway 101 in san rafael. it looks good getting down to central san rafael. if you are driving this morning in san francisco northbound 101 from the 280 interchange all the way to the 80 split is off to a good start. let's go back to the desk. it is a big weekend in san francisco with more than one million people